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Hakan Oguz
(Corresponding author)
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Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Forestry, Kahramanmaras
Sutcu Imam University-
46100, Kahramanmaras, Turkey
e-mail:
hakan@ksu.edu.tr
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Publication Data
Paper received:
16
November 2010
Revised
received:
17
June 2011
Accepted:
30 July 2011
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Abstract
City of Kahramanmaras has
witnessed a rapid growth in the last five decades due to its agricultural and
industrial potential. Urbanization has brought great challenges to the
sustainable development of cities, especially in developing countries. A
modeling system that could provide regional assessments of future development
and explore the potential impacts of different regional management scenarios
would be useful for the future health of the cities. The main goal of this
study was to create a modeling system capable of depicting, quantitatively
and graphically, the growth impacts of two land use policies and trends in
the city of Kahramanmaras.
Given its success with regional scale simulation, its ability to incorporate
different levels of land protection through an ?excluded? layer, and the
relative ease of implementation and computation, the model developed by Keith Clarke
from University of California at Santa
Barbara, known as SLEUTH, was adopted for this
study. SLEUTH is a pixel-based cellular automaton (CA) model and has been
applied to several cities worldwide successfully. The model was calibrated
using historic time series of developed areas derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)
imagery between 1984 and 2009, and future growth was projected
out to 2040. Two alternative growth scenarios were modeled: (1) current trends, and (2) managed growth: regions with
high landscape potential were protected from urbanization. This application
of the SLEUTH model demonstrates an ability to address a range of regional
planning issues and provides useful information for
the cities? future planning and development.
Key
words
SLEUTH, Future urban growth,
Land use/land cover change, Remote sensing ?
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